FINAL: MIN 2 — BAL 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.1 - BAL 4.4 (BAL at 51.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
MIN
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
BAL
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINBAL
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BALMIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.1 — BAL 4.4
Actual
MIN 2 — BAL 5
Pick Results
BAL @ MIN NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph20% whiff
FS20%85 mph23% whiff
SL15%84 mph41% whiff
Bailey Ober R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH35%83 mph21% whiff
FF32%88 mph14% whiff
SL16%82 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
90°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.098 Total: 1.052
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.45ERA
4.02FIP
8.63K/9
3.75BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIN
4.10ERA
3.85FIP
9.20K/9
3.92BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-15.3% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
+9.2% EV
+108
F5_ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 5.5
+6.4% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+6.3% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-5.3% EV
-192
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.4 runs
44.4% win
MIN F5
2.2 runs
39.6% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.059 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x
Kody Clemens MIN28.8%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Zebby Matthews SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Both starters (Ober 4.81 ERA, Young 3.70 ERA) have elevated walk rates that suppress efficient scoring even in hot weather with a tailwind, giving the model a 6.3% UNDER 9.0 edge that the market hasn't recognized.
Key Factors
- Starter quality: Ober (4.81 ERA, 15.9% K-rate, weak C+ stuff, 6.5% BB) vs Young (3.70 ERA, 19.1% K-rate, B-grade, 8.3% BB). Both mediocre with high walk rates.
- Weather: 89.7F hot + 8.1mph wind blowing OUT normally = +1.0-1.5 runs, but weak command mitigates via extended at-bats and bullpen turnover.
- NRFI edge of 9.2% (model 52.5%) supports early-inning scoring suppression consistent with under thesis.
- Model total 8.49 vs market 9.0 = 0.51 pt UNDER edge at 6.3% model confidence.
Risk Factors
- Total historical support shows only a supportive track record historically — weak predictive power, don't overweight.
- Wind blowing out + hot weather typically favors overs; model may be underestimating weather impact.
- Both lineups carry power threats (Encarnacion-Strand, Alonso, Clemens) creating upside blowup risk.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 51.6%
-5.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-5.3 pts
Total
9.0
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.