PIT vs MIA prediction for August 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.0 - PIT 4.0. PIT is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
MIA
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PIT
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAPIT
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.0 — PIT 4.0
Actual
MIA 2 — PIT 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Paul Skenes R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph28% whiff
ST16%84 mph29% whiff
CH14%89 mph35% whiff
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%98 mph21% whiff
SI15%98 mph15% whiff
SL15%88 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
88°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.995
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.49ERA
3.68FIP
9.81K/9
4.15BB/9
1.26WHIP
MIA
4.11ERA
3.93FIP
9.68K/9
4.17BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.3 runs
41.7% win
MIA F5
2.3 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.8%
YRFI
43.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Kyle Stowers 1B10-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Balanced SP matchup (Skenes 4.28 ERA vs Pérez 3.90 ERA, Skenes has elite 30.2% K-rate) in neutral park; no edge detectable in ML or totals.
Key Factors
- Skenes (30.2% K-rate, B-grade stuff) vs Pérez (26.7% K-rate, B-grade) — Skenes has K edge but higher ERA (4.28 vs 3.90). Not decisive.
- Park factor: loanDepot Park 1.0x, retractable roof. Weather 87.9F, 7mph wind in, slightly suppresses totals.
- Balanced lineups, no platoon or off-day effects noted.
Risk Factors
- Away ML is RED combo historical support. Historical underperformance on away favorites/underdogs generally.
- Model shows minimal net advantage either way.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.