SEA vs NYY prediction for August 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.8 - SEA 3.8. NYY is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
NYY
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYSEA
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.7% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 4.8 — SEA 3.8
Actual
NYY 4 — SEA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%96 mph9% whiff
SL15%87 mph31% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH25%86 mph35% whiff
FF24%96 mph17% whiff
ST21%81 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
84°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.005 Total: 1.000
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.35ERA
3.87FIP
8.87K/9
3.38BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
2.89ERA
3.87FIP
8.58K/9
3.49BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.1 runs
35.9% win
NYY F5
2.6 runs
48.2% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
NYY has marginal SP edge (Weathers 4.09 ERA vs Woo 4.65 ERA) but model edge is only +0.4% on ML with negative run line value; home field premium already priced in at -126.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup slight NYY edge: Weathers (4.09 ERA, 25.6% K-rate, B-grade) vs Woo (4.65 ERA, 24.1% K-rate, B-grade). Marginal 0.3-0.4 pt difference.
- Home field: Yankee Stadium 1.1x park factor, 83.8F, 5.5mph wind in — roughly +0.5 runs, already priced into -126.
- Both teams missing key position players (NYY: Judge, Stanton, Bellinger; SEA: J.P. Crawford) — roughly offsetting.
Risk Factors
- NYY home favorite at -126 in 0-5% edge bucket shows only a supportive track record — not strong enough to recommend.
- Model edge nearly flat at 0.4%. Run line shows -6.3% edge (unfavorable). Avoid spread.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.