BOS vs TOR prediction for August 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 2.8 - BOS 2.9. BOS is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 5.7 total runs.
TOR
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
BOS
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBOS
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.8 — BOS 2.9
Actual
TOR 5 — BOS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL30%87 mph27% whiff
CH23%84 mph39% whiff
FF23%94 mph11% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph24% whiff
SL30%89 mph42% whiff
CH12%83 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
77°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.027 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.34ERA
3.53FIP
9.70K/9
3.07BB/9
1.23WHIP
TOR
3.16ERA
3.87FIP
7.79K/9
4.15BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.4 runs
36.4% win
TOR F5
1.5 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
67.7%
YRFI
32.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Kazuma Okamoto 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
BOS pitcher Cease (2.46 ERA, A- elite stuff) dominates TOR's Sandoval (3.65 ERA, B- stuff); model prices BOS underdog value the market hasn't caught up to, and Rutschman's activation is unpriced.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch FOR BOS: Cease (2.46 ERA, 35.9% K-rate, A- elite stuff, 0.637 score) vs Sandoval (3.65 ERA, 22.9% K-rate, B- stuff, 0.509 score). 1.19 ERA gap = ~2.0-2.5 pt swing.
- Cease elite K-rate (35.9%) vs Sandoval (22.9%) is a 13pp gap, historically predictive of sustained run suppression.
- Rutschman (C) just activated for BOS — adds +0.3-0.5 pts offensive value plus framing upgrade, unpriced by market.
- F5 UNDER edge is massive: 12.3% on F5 UNDER 3.5 (model 59.8% prob). Cease dominates early innings.
Risk Factors
- Away underdog in RED-adjacent historical support. Despite SP edge, away dogs underperform on average.
- TOR recent hot/cold form not directly captured by model.
- NRFI edge (64.6% model, +3.9%) may be eating into full-game edge pricing, worth monitoring.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.