FINAL: ATL 4 — NYM 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 5.5 - NYM 3.7 (ATL at 64.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
ATL
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLNYM
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.7% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
ATL
467
Projected
ATL 5.5 — NYM 3.7
Actual
ATL 4 — NYM 0
Pick Results
NYM @ ATL NRFInrfiWIN+0.45u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI32%95 mph12% whiff
FF21%96 mph27% whiff
CU14%82 mph37% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%89 mph9% whiff
CH30%82 mph32% whiff
FC23%85 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
81°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.28ERA
4.25FIP
9.11K/9
4.32BB/9
1.41WHIP
ATL
2.88ERA
3.38FIP
9.84K/9
3.18BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-23.0% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-14.8% EV
-192
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+13.4% EV
+158
F5_ML HOME
+11.1% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-10.7% EV
+114
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-7.0% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.0 runs
29.4% win
ATL F5
3.1 runs
56.1% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Nolan McLean | Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL28.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Nolan McLean | Platoon: 1.12x
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL25.1%
ISO: 0.096 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Nolan McLean
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
ATL's Pérez (3.39 ERA) has an ERA edge over NYM's McLean (3.79 ERA) despite McLean's better K-rate; combined with home field, model shows 5.5% ML edge that the market hasn't fully priced.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge to ATL: Pérez (3.39 ERA) vs McLean (3.79 ERA) — 0.40 ERA advantage, though McLean has 9.2pp K-rate edge (28.4% vs 19.2%). Mixed signals lean slightly ATL on run prevention.
- Home field: Truist Park 1.0x park, 81F warm, 5mph wind in — neutral. F5_ML shows a bigger 11.1% edge for ATL, the real driver here.
- Model sees 58.3% ATL win prob vs market implied 55.2% — 5.5% edge, moderate and actionable.
Risk Factors
- Home favorite historical support shows only a supportive track record historically (small sample n=20) for this specific edge/prob bucket.
- ATL run line shows 13.4% edge but run lines are a historically weak bet type — stick to ML.
- NYM's IL situation (Soto, Vientos out) is already priced into current odds.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 64.3%
+13.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+13.4 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.