CHC vs WSH prediction for August 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.3 - CHC 6.0. CHC is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
WSH
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHCHC
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.3 — CHC 6.0
Actual
WSH 6 — CHC 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%92 mph17% whiff
FS32%83 mph39% whiff
ST15%81 mph29% whiff
Jake Irvin R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph20% whiff
CU26%77 mph38% whiff
SI22%92 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
91°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.006
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.05ERA
4.61FIP
8.97K/9
3.97BB/9
1.32WHIP
WSH
5.30ERA
5.06FIP
8.80K/9
4.60BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.3 runs
46.2% win
WSH F5
3.0 runs
41.2% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
47.5%
YRFI
52.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
WSH pitcher (Imanaga 3.89 ERA, B-grade stuff) clearly outpitches CHC's Irvin (5.80 ERA, C+ stuff). Market underprices WSH by 6.2% on ML, and CHC is without Juan Soto (calf IL).
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch AGAINST CHC: Irvin (5.80 ERA, 23.1% K-rate, C+ grade) vs Imanaga (3.89 ERA, 23.4% K-rate, B-grade). 1.91 ERA gap = ~2-3 pt swing to WSH.
- Soto absence: CHC missing LF Juan Soto (10D-IL, calf). Estimated -0.5 to -0.7 run lineup downgrade.
- Home field: Nationals Park 91.4F, 5.6mph wind = slightly suppressed runs, but SP mismatch dominates.
- Model 40.5% CHC vs market implied 38.2% (i.e., WSH is 6.2% more likely per model than market prices).
Risk Factors
- Home ML in weak historical support.
- F5_ML shows extreme market disagreement too (CHC model 44.2% vs implied ~39.3%), suggesting market already somewhat respects Imanaga early.
- Both teams have unrelated IL situations that don't change this specific edge.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.