CLE vs DET prediction for August 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 5.1 - CLE 4.7. DET is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
DET
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
DET
357
Projected
DET 5.1 — CLE 4.7
Actual
DET 6 — CLE 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC25%86 mph30% whiff
SI23%93 mph14% whiff
FF22%94 mph14% whiff
Drew Anderson R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph19% whiff
CH31%90 mph35% whiff
CU23%80 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
82°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.006
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.70ERA
3.97FIP
9.84K/9
3.99BB/9
1.28WHIP
DET
4.33ERA
4.50FIP
8.49K/9
4.32BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.5 runs
38.6% win
DET F5
2.9 runs
47.3% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Enmanuel De Jesus RPDAY-TO-DAY
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Even pitcher matchup (Bibee 4.16 ERA vs Anderson 4.33 ERA) with minimal model edge (-3.4% on home ML); no informational advantage detected.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Bibee (4.16 ERA, 19.2% K-rate) vs Anderson (4.33 ERA, 26.6% K-rate) — Anderson has K advantage (+7.4pp) but Bibee more efficient.
- Park factor: Comerica Park 1.0x neutral. Weather 82F, 5mph wind in = neutral totals.
- Home ML edge is -3.4% (negative), meaning market is more bullish on home than model. Not actionable.
Risk Factors
- Both starters lack elite strikeout stuff (both 8.0 K/9 simulated). Bullpen variance high.
- DET's Riley Greene (LF) DAY-TO-DAY on leg; if unavailable, ~0.3 pt lineup downgrade.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.