FINAL: OAK 3 — BAL 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OAK 4.2 - BAL 5.5 (BAL at 54.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
OAK
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
BAL
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKBAL
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BAL W5OAK L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
467
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 4.2 — BAL 5.5
Actual
OAK 3 — BAL 5
Pick Results
BAL @ OAK F5 UNDER 5.5f5WIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph14% whiff
KC33%85 mph28% whiff
FC15%90 mph21% whiff
Jack Perkins R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%96 mph15% whiff
ST29%86 mph34% whiff
CH18%90 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
80°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.019
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.19ERA
3.81FIP
8.71K/9
3.66BB/9
1.31WHIP
OAK
5.31ERA
4.47FIP
9.59K/9
4.63BB/9
1.57WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-9.2% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-9.0% EV
+112
NRFI NRFI
+5.5% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-5.4% EV
-137
ML AWAY
-3.4% EV
-135
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-3.0% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.9 runs
49.1% win
OAK F5
2.2 runs
35.8% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Jack Perkins | Park: 0.94x
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.153 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Jack Perkins | Park: 0.94x
Samuel Basallo BAL27.3%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Jack Perkins | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Jack Perkins
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
BAL @ OAK is a late-night game (2:06 AM) with high-variance pitchers (Perkins 7.21 ERA vs Baz 4.36 ERA). OAK's Baz actually has the SP edge here (lower ERA) despite being the home underdog, while BAL has the far stronger bullpen (4.19 ERA vs OAK's 5.31 ERA, worst on slate). Model shows minimal ML edges; SKIP for clearer spots.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors OAK: Baz 4.36 ERA vs Perkins 7.21 ERA (worst starter on slate). OAK actually has the starting pitcher advantage despite being priced as the home underdog — an unusual but real signal.
- Bullpen gap huge favoring BAL: BAL 4.19 ERA vs OAK 5.31 ERA (worst bullpen on slate). BAL's relief corps is a major asset in a game that could get away from Perkins early.
- Late-night game (2:06 AM UTC) compounds fatigue/variance for both sides.
- Weather: 80.4°F, neutral (1.037 HR mult, 1.019 total mult). No material weather edge.
- Model edges minimal: HOME ML 0.5% edge (essentially zero), AWAY ML -3.4% edge (slight home-side bias in the model). Both near coin-flip.
Risk Factors
- LATE-NIGHT VARIANCE: 2:06 AM game is inherently unpredictable; bullpen depth exhausted, starters may underperform due to scheduling fatigue.
- Perkins' 7.21 ERA is the worst on the slate — could get shelled early, and OAK's weak bullpen (5.31 ERA) may not be able to protect a lead either way.
- High-variance game with minimal model edge = no action justified.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 54.2%
-5.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-5.4 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.