FINAL: TOR 8 — BAL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 4.2 - BAL 3.4 (TOR at 62.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
TOR
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
BAL
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BAL W4TOR
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.3% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
135
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.2 — BAL 3.4
Actual
TOR 8 — BAL 1
Pick Results
TOR MLmlWIN+0.35u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph20% whiff
CH21%87 mph21% whiff
ST14%78 mph30% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph22% whiff
SL30%89 mph42% whiff
CH12%82 mph47% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
78°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.05ERA
3.64FIP
9.28K/9
3.67BB/9
1.31WHIP
TOR
3.37ERA
4.05FIP
8.44K/9
3.81BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-8.9% EV
+122
ML AWAY
-8.3% EV
+131
F5 OVER 3.5
-7.7% EV
-130
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-6.0% EV
-172
F5 UNDER 3.5
-4.3% EV
+100
NRFI NRFI
-3.3% EV
-156
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
1.7 runs
31.4% win
TOR F5
2.4 runs
50.2% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Pete Alonso BAL28.6%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x
Coby Mayo BAL24.7%
ISO: 0.138 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR24.6%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Dylan Cease's ace-level 2.59 ERA/34.8% K-rate over Trevor Rogers' 4.48 ERA, combined with TOR's elite bullpen and historically well-supported validation at a modest 2.5% edge, makes this the highest-quality, lowest-variance play on the slate.
Key Factors
- Ace-level SP gap: Dylan Cease 2.59 ERA (34.8% K-rate, B+) vs Trevor Rogers 4.48 ERA (21.9% K-rate) = 1.89 ERA delta
- Bullpen quality: TOR 3.37 ERA (1.335 quality) significantly better than BAL 4.05 ERA (1.111 quality)
- historically well-supported validated: home | any ML a supportive track record; combo home | favorite a supportive track record
- Low 2.5% edge sits in the historically favorable low-edge range, avoiding the >15% overconfidence trap
Risk Factors
- BAL's lineup weakened by injuries (Mountcastle, O'Neill, Robert Jr. all out) but this is already reflected in a low market price
- Low edge means little margin for a single bad Cease inning to flip the result
- Trevor Rogers is left-handed and could exploit any platoon weakness in TOR's righty-heavy lineup
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 62.7%
+2.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.9 pts
Total
7.0
+3.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.