HOU vs TB prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.1 - HOU 5.3. TB is favored with a 50.8% win probability. TB wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
TB
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
HOU
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBHOU
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.5% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
TB
357
Projected
TB 5.1 — HOU 5.3
Actual
TB 14 — HOU 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hayden Wesneski R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST30%81 mph39% whiff
FF24%94 mph11% whiff
SI17%92 mph11% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%94 mph18% whiff
CH23%87 mph26% whiff
CU13%79 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
78°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.50ERA
3.97FIP
9.22K/9
3.58BB/9
1.19WHIP
TB
3.46ERA
3.90FIP
8.91K/9
2.67BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
3.0 runs
44.9% win
TB F5
2.8 runs
41.4% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
45.4%
YRFI
54.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Taylor Walls SS10-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.