NYM vs NYY prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.6 - NYM 4.6. NYY is favored with a 62.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
NYY
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYNYM
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.3% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 5.6 — NYM 4.6
Actual
NYY 2 — NYM 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph24% whiff
ST23%81 mph28% whiff
FC18%90 mph24% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph32% whiff
FC26%95 mph20% whiff
SI20%98 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.029
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.46ERA
4.23FIP
9.42K/9
3.86BB/9
1.37WHIP
NYY
3.27ERA
4.14FIP
8.35K/9
3.67BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.4 runs
32.8% win
NYY F5
3.3 runs
54.0% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
45.1%
YRFI
54.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM5 injured
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
NYY7 injured
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.