PIT vs CHC prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.2 - PIT 5.5. CHC is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PIT
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
467
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.2 — PIT 5.5
Actual
CHC 3 — PIT 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%98 mph19% whiff
SL20%91 mph23% whiff
CH15%92 mph24% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph13% whiff
CH27%79 mph26% whiff
SL15%83 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
71°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.983 Total: 0.988
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.82ERA
3.66FIP
9.58K/9
4.20BB/9
1.28WHIP
CHC
4.29ERA
4.73FIP
9.22K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.0 runs
37.6% win
CHC F5
3.7 runs
51.0% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
42.4%
YRFI
57.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.42
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Esmerlyn Valdez RF10-DAY-IL
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY-IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Dansby Swanson SS10-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.