CIN vs MIL prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.3 - CIN 5.7. CIN is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
MIL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CIN
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCIN
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
468
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.3 — CIN 5.7
Actual
MIL 3 — CIN 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF56%98 mph14% whiff
SL39%90 mph49% whiff
CH5%90 mph32% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%80 mph27% whiff
SI23%93 mph10% whiff
FF23%93 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
71°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.079 Total: 1.044
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.46ERA
4.74FIP
9.14K/9
4.87BB/9
1.41WHIP
MIL
3.03ERA
3.38FIP
9.47K/9
3.61BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
3.4 runs
48.4% win
MIL F5
3.0 runs
39.0% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
46.1%
YRFI
53.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN5 injured
Matt McLain 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B60-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
MIL7 injured
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.