LAA vs WSH prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 6.1 - LAA 5.5. WSH is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
WSH
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHLAA
-1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
467
WSH
468
Projected
WSH 6.1 — LAA 5.5
Actual
WSH 6 — LAA 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%96 mph13% whiff
CH25%83 mph32% whiff
CU11%81 mph23% whiff
Jake Irvin R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%93 mph18% whiff
CU24%78 mph34% whiff
SI19%92 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
82°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.09ERA
4.08FIP
9.52K/9
3.87BB/9
1.35WHIP
WSH
5.85ERA
5.31FIP
8.92K/9
4.98BB/9
1.57WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
3.3 runs
38.1% win
WSH F5
3.9 runs
50.7% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
39.6%
YRFI
60.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.56
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Matt Waldron RP60-DAY-IL
Harry Ford CDAY-TO-DAY
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Nasim Nunez 2BBEREAVEMENT
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.