FINAL: OAK 2 — BOS 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OAK 3.8 - BOS 4.8 (BOS at 53.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
OAK
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
BOS
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKBOS
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS W4OAK L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (3,049 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
357
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 3.8 — BOS 4.8
Actual
OAK 2 — BOS 4
Pick Results
BOS @ OAK NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%93 mph23% whiff
SI27%92 mph6% whiff
CH25%83 mph34% whiff
Gage Jump L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%96 mph19% whiff
SL23%87 mph24% whiff
CU13%83 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
91°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.027
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.4% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-30.1% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+20.0% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-13.4% EV
-192
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.7% EV
-119
ML HOME
+11.0% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.5 runs
48.9% win
OAK F5
2.0 runs
35.7% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
4%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jeffrey Springs SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 53.3%
-34.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.4 pts
Total
10.0
+20.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.