BOS vs OAK prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.5 - BOS 4.1. BOS is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
OAK
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
BOS
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKBOS
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
OAK
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI21%92 mph13% whiff
FC20%88 mph15% whiff
ST19%85 mph36% whiff
Mason Barnett R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%95 mph12% whiff
SL26%88 mph29% whiff
ST16%83 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
95°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.58ERA
3.77FIP
8.93K/9
2.91BB/9
1.25WHIP
OAK
4.80ERA
4.36FIP
9.74K/9
4.21BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.0 runs
41.7% win
OAK F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.0%
YRFI
41.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.