FINAL: NYM 2 — MIA 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 2.5 - MIA 4.6 (MIA at 63.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
NYM
2.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIA
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIANYM W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.7% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
NYM
124
Projected
NYM 2.5 — MIA 4.6
Actual
NYM 2 — MIA 5
Pick Results
MIA F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.51u
MIA @ NYM NRFInrfiWIN+0.41u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph10% whiff
SL21%86 mph13% whiff
CH18%87 mph25% whiff
Kodai Senga R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%96 mph15% whiff
FO24%83 mph40% whiff
FC17%90 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
78°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.054 Total: 1.029
5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.14ERA
3.70FIP
9.49K/9
4.02BB/9
1.22WHIP
NYM
3.52ERA
3.84FIP
9.31K/9
3.52BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-38.2% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
+27.1% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-17.3% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-15.9% EV
-192
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+15.2% EV
+158
ML HOME
-13.8% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.8 runs
61.8% win
NYM F5
1.3 runs
22.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Griffin Conine MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 15.9% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Heriberto Hernández MIA27.4%
ISO: 0.139 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x
Francisco Alvarez NYM24.7%
ISO: 0.210 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Kodai Senga
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Michael Petersen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
MODEL CONTRADICTION RESOLVED: Senga 9.56 ERA (SP RED FLAG) vs Junk 5.28 ERA — WHY is MIA favored at 63.5% away? Because Senga is in COMPLETE meltdown: 9.56 ERA on elite stuff (B- 0.467) but catastrophic command (C 0.316, 15.5% BB rate). Junk is mediocre but FUNCTIONAL. MIA lineup vs Senga is LAYUP territory. Away ML at 9.9% edge (model 54.4% vs market 49.5%) is elite value despite away status; market materially underpricing Senga's collapse.
Key Factors
- PITCHER MISMATCH EXTREME (against MIA): Senga 9.56 ERA, 15.5% BB rate (catastrophic command) vs Junk 5.28 ERA, 6.3% BB rate — elite strikeout stuff (Senga 24.7% K-rate) doesn't matter if wildness + home runs
- MIA lineup vs Senga: 4.63 mean away runs projected by model — highest away team run expectation on slate (LAA 4.03, LAD 2.21)
- F5_ML AWAY shows 27.1% edge (model 67.6% prob) — STRONGEST EDGE ON SLATE; Senga will give up early runs
- Run-line AWAY -1.5 shows 15.2% edge (model 44.7% prob) — secondary premium play
- Home ML for NYM 13.8% edge (model 45.6%) — market is WRONG, backing NYM is value trap
Risk Factors
- Away team traditionally weak on ML (46.8% historical WR) — this game is exception due to pitcher collapse
- Senga might be pulled early if gets rocked (bullpen game scenario); unpredictability if game spirals
- NYM defense/bullpen (3.52 ERA, 1.278 quality, elite) might stabilize late innings even if Senga implodes early
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 63.5%
-15.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-15.9 pts
Total
8.5
+8.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.