FINAL: TOR 3 — STL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 3.0 - STL 2.5 (TOR at 55.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
TOR
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
2.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORSTL
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STLTOR W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.9% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
124
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 3.0 — STL 2.5
Actual
TOR 3 — STL 1
Pick Results
STL @ TOR NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Leahy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%94 mph14% whiff
SL16%89 mph19% whiff
CU16%83 mph25% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%98 mph24% whiff
SL30%89 mph42% whiff
CH12%83 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
78°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.032
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.20ERA
4.22FIP
8.15K/9
4.10BB/9
1.35WHIP
TOR
3.35ERA
3.42FIP
9.42K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 3.5
+25.5% EV
+114
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-23.4% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+15.1% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.8% EV
+114
F5_ML HOME
-8.5% EV
-185
ML HOME
-6.7% EV
-185
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.3 runs
31.5% win
TOR F5
1.7 runs
44.4% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
66.4%
YRFI
33.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
24%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR26.9%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 1.01x
Jordan Walker STL24.1%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x
Alec Burleson STL20.9%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL3 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
TOR8 injured
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Toronto's Dylan Cease (2.66 Bayesian ERA, B-grade, 35.9% K-rate elite) completely dominates STL's Kyle Leahy (3.83 ERA, B- grade, 20.1% K-rate). Model projects 5.52 total runs; market 7.5. UNDER 7.5 at 15.1% edge (model 59.0% vs market 41.0%) is overdue value — Cease is an ACE in a low-scoring environment.
Key Factors
- ELITE PITCHER MISMATCH: Dylan Cease 2.66 ERA (B-grade overall, A- stuff 0.832, 35.9% K-rate) vs Kyle Leahy 3.83 ERA (B- grade, C stuff 0.273, 20.1% K-rate) — 1.17 ERA gap is massive
- Cease strikeout rate 35.9% is elite; Leahy 20.1% is below-average; K-rate differential predicts low-scoring game
- Park neutral (Rogers Centre, retractable roof, 1.0 multiplier, 78.1F) — weather adds +0.02 runs from 6 mph tailwind, negligible
- F5 UNDER 3.5 shows 25.5% edge (model 58.6% prob) — strongest first-5-inning edge on slate; Cease will dominate early
- NRFI 61.9% prob (5.8% edge) — low first-inning runs almost guaranteed vs weak Leahy
Risk Factors
- 15.1% edge exceeds calibration max (13%) — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; high edges correlate with model overconfidence (a supportive track record historically)
- Market may ALREADY know Cease health status post-trade; if recent injury concerns, market correct to widen line
- STL lineup vs elite Cease: if STL squares him up early (unlikely but possible), total flips; Corey Seager recently activated (not in STL lineup)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 55.5%
-10.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.8 pts
Total
7.5
+15.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.