FINAL: HOU 11 — TEX 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 4.4 - TEX 3.4 (HOU at 57.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
HOU
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTEX
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEXHOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.5% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 4.4 — TEX 3.4
Actual
HOU 11 — TEX 2
Pick Results
TEX @ HOU NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph24% whiff
SL36%91 mph36% whiff
CH13%90 mph43% whiff
Ronel Blanco R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%93 mph14% whiff
SL29%86 mph38% whiff
CU20%80 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
94°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.23ERA
4.26FIP
8.22K/9
3.46BB/9
1.31WHIP
HOU
3.65ERA
4.18FIP
9.14K/9
3.85BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-17.0% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-9.4% EV
-204
F5_ML HOME
+5.5% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-5.5% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-5.4% EV
+112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+5.0% EV
+168
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.9 runs
34.1% win
HOU F5
2.6 runs
50.3% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Ronel Blanco
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model projects HOU edge (54.0% win prob) on paper, but Nathan Eovaldi (4.37 ERA, B grade, 24.5% K-rate) vs Hunter Brown (3.73 ERA, B- grade, 25.3% K-rate) shows pitcher parity (K-rate within margin). Edges below threshold (HOU ML -1.9%, totals ±3-5%+). Hot weather (94F) inflates run env, but public already pricing Coors-lite environment. Insufficient conviction.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Eovaldi 4.37 ERA (B grade 0.598, B stuff 0.552) vs Brown 3.73 ERA (B- grade 0.458, B stuff 0.547) — nearly identical (0.64 ERA gap is small)
- K-rates nearly identical: Eovaldi 24.5%, Brown 25.3% — no strikeout advantage either direction
- Extreme heat (94F, Daikin Park 2.7 mph tailwind, +1.048 HR multiplier, +1.025 total multiplier) adds ~0.20-0.30 runs, explained in market
- HOU bullpen 3.65 ERA (1.233 quality) vs TEX 4.23 ERA (1.064 quality) — HOU relief edge moderate
- NRFI only 54.3% (minimal edge 2.1%) — game likely opens normal; no scoring suppression
Risk Factors
- Model-market conflict near-zero; edges below 5% on both sides — unactionable
- Heat (94F) is unpredictable; could trigger sudden offensive surge in late innings
- Corey Seager (TEX) recently activated off IL (lower back) — game readiness unknown; may affect lineup power
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 57.6%
+5.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.0 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.