FINAL: CHC 0 — NYY 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 3.8 - NYY 3.5 (CHC at 53.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
CHC
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYY
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCNYY
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYYCHC L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
245
CHC
246
Projected
CHC 3.8 — NYY 3.5
Actual
CHC 0 — NYY 2
Pick Results
NYY @ CHC NRFInrfiWIN+0.47u
NYY @ CHC F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+0.54u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%94 mph20% whiff
SI27%93 mph17% whiff
ST20%84 mph22% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%92 mph18% whiff
FS33%83 mph39% whiff
ST14%81 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
80°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.041 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
2.95ERA
3.70FIP
8.64K/9
3.39BB/9
1.19WHIP
CHC
4.39ERA
4.76FIP
8.39K/9
3.65BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-22.3% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 5.5
+14.1% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+13.3% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-8.7% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.8% EV
+128
NRFI NRFI
+7.6% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.9 runs
37.6% win
CHC F5
2.2 runs
44.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.9%
YRFI
40.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.299 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC28.2%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 7.25 total runs; market at 9.0. UNDER shows 13.3% edge (model 59.3% vs market 40.7%) on solid pitcher matchup (Imanaga 4.02 ERA vs Warren 4.76 ERA — slight CHC edge) but weather/park factors (Wrigley +2.1% multiplier) added +0.15 runs; the 9.0 line is overcooked for a mid-rotation matchup.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality balanced: Imanaga 4.02 ERA (23.1% K-rate, 6.1% BB) vs Warren 4.76 ERA (23.2% K-rate, 7.5% BB) — slight advantage to CHC home SP
- Model total 7.25 vs market 9.0 = 1.75-run gap; weather multiplier only +0.15 runs (Wrigley thin air 79F, 8mph wind mild tailwind)
- NRFI probability 59.9% (edge 7.6%) — suggests low first-inning scoring; combined NRFI + UNDER at 9.0 creates correlated value
- Historical UNDER historical support: a supportive track record at sample n=288; high-edge (13%+) unders in 55-60% prob range lack strong historically well-supported confirmation
- Bullpen equity: NYY bullpen ERA 2.95 (1.525 quality multiplier, elite) vs CHC 4.39 ERA (1.025 quality) — NYY advantage doesn't trigger runaway overs
Risk Factors
- High edge (13.3%) on totals — historical data shows 15%+ edges perform poorly (a supportive track record); overconfidence penalty warrants caution
- ESPN report: Will Warren pitched dominant game Friday (4-hit ball into 7th) — sharp action likely favors AWAY (counter to market mispricing)
- CHC missing RP Hollowell (15-day IL shoulder); unknown bullpen depth for late innings; if bullpen struggles, overs could spike
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.7%
-7.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.8 pts
Total
9.0
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.