FINAL: CIN 8 — PIT 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CIN 3.9 - PIT 4.2 (PIT at 50.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
CIN
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PIT
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PIT W4CIN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.1% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
CIN
246
Projected
CIN 3.9 — PIT 4.2
Actual
CIN 8 — PIT 7
Pick Results
CIN F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.54u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Paul Skenes R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph27% whiff
ST16%84 mph28% whiff
CH15%89 mph35% whiff
Hunter Greene R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF52%98 mph13% whiff
SL33%89 mph47% whiff
FS9%87 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
92°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.006
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.40ERA
4.55FIP
9.15K/9
4.41BB/9
1.42WHIP
CIN
4.21ERA
5.03FIP
8.36K/9
4.97BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
-135
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-9.1% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.4% EV
+134
ML AWAY
-4.7% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
+2.3% EV
+108
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-2.1% EV
-161
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.1 runs
41.0% win
CIN F5
2.1 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.2%
YRFI
40.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Hunter Greene | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Elly De La Cruz CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.176 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT29.1%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Hunter Greene | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Hunter Greene
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Rafael Flores Jr. C7-DAY IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
CIN6 injured
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model is CONFLICTED — projects CIN at 49.9% win prob (near coin flip), but pitchers are massively mismatched: Hunter Greene 7.62 ERA (RED FLAG) vs Paul Skenes 3.94 ERA (strong). This DATA_INTEGRITY issue suggests model underfitting Greene's weakness or overweighting park/weather factors at Great American (Coors-lite +1.08 multiplier, 91.7F).
Key Factors
- CRITICAL PITCHER MISMATCH: Greene 7.62 ERA (30.9% K-rate, 7.4% BB) vs Skenes 3.94 ERA (30.1% K-rate, 6.1% BB) — Skenes elite, Greene struggling
- Model favors CIN at 49.9% despite pitcher DISADVANTAGE — conflicts first-principles rule (better pitcher should favor away team)
- Great American park +1.08 multiplier (thin air, 6 mph headwind IN); weather adds ~0.1-0.2 runs, doesn't explain 2-3 win equity swing
- PIT bullpen 4.40 ERA (1.023 quality) vs CIN 4.21 ERA (1.069 quality) — marginal edge neither direction
- NRFI probability 59.2% (low scoring start expected) — conflicts with model favoring 8.0 over
Risk Factors
- Model-market conflict: model projects CIN 49.9% but Skenes is objectively better pitcher (3.94 vs 7.62 ERA = 3.68 ERA gap). If Skenes dominates, PIT edge not priced
- Edge under 5% (2.7%) — historical undercovered ML plays with <5% edge show a supportive track record; not actionable
- Bullpen fatigue risk unknown — no prior day usage data available; CIN may have had heavy usage
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 50.1%
-2.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-2.1 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.