PHI vs BAL prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.5 - PHI 3.0. BAL is favored with a 55.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALPHI
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.8% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
135
BAL
245
Projected
BAL 3.5 — PHI 3.0
Actual
BAL 6 — PHI 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph8% whiff
SL21%88 mph37% whiff
FS14%87 mph36% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph18% whiff
FS20%85 mph23% whiff
SL15%84 mph44% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
87°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.70ERA
3.97FIP
10.56K/9
3.67BB/9
1.42WHIP
BAL
3.90ERA
4.00FIP
8.59K/9
3.40BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.5 runs
33.3% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
46.5% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
61.7%
YRFI
38.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Market overpricing total at 8.5 when model projects 6.56 runs (both SPs weak, but BAL's Brandon Young 3.38 ERA + 0.414 grade better than PHI's Andrew Painter 7.62 ERA). Cold pitching matchup + park neutral + weather neutral yields UNDER 8.5 at 12.6% edge (model 57.4% vs market 42.6%).
Key Factors
- Both SPs weak: Young 3.38 ERA (0.414 overall grade, C+ stuff) vs Painter 7.62 ERA (0.409 overall grade, C+ stuff) — Young edge from ERA alone (4.24 ERA gap)
- Park neutral (Oriole Park 1.03 multiplier, 86.7F, 5 mph mild tailwind); weather multiplier 1.018 adds ~0.15 runs
- Model 6.56 runs + park weather (~0.15) = 6.71 adjusted, vs market 8.5 = 1.79 run overestimate by market
- NRFI probability 61.7% (11.7% edge) — low first-inning scoring confirms total suppression signal; NRFI + UNDER correlated value
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 21.6% edge (model 63.0%) — strongest edge on slate, suggests first 5 innings especially low-scoring
Risk Factors
- 14.8% edge exceeds calibration max (13%) for totals — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING applies; overconfidence penalty -1 confidence tier
- BAL missing key C Adley Rutschman (10-day IL wrist) — secondary backup catcher may impact pitch framing, unquantified
- PHI lineup strong (Schwarber, Harper both 30+ HR prob); if either goes deep, total flips quickly
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.