FINAL: TB 1 — CWS 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.4 - CWS 3.0 (TB at 54.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCWS
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS L4TB
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.8% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.4 — CWS 3.0
Actual
TB 1 — CWS 6
Pick Results
CWS @ TB NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Erick Fedde R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST37%82 mph21% whiff
SI30%94 mph13% whiff
FC18%91 mph15% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph8% whiff
CH27%78 mph31% whiff
FC21%89 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
82°F5 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.88ERA
4.15FIP
9.15K/9
4.52BB/9
1.35WHIP
TB
3.83ERA
4.02FIP
9.03K/9
3.20BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.3% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-20.6% EV
+100
NRFI NRFI
+13.3% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+9.8% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-8.8% EV
+116
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-4.6% EV
-200
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.5 runs
33.3% win
TB F5
2.0 runs
46.4% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
43%
No HR
24%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.356 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB28.1%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 0.92x
Miguel Vargas CWS26.5%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
TB8 injured
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 6.42 total runs; market 8.5. Both SPs are weak (Martinez 2.65 ERA but C+ grade stuff 0.103, Fedde 4.59 ERA mediocre) but low-scoring context dominates. UNDER 8.5 at 9.8% edge (model 60.3% vs market 39.7%) is clean value in closed-roof Tropicana (neutral weather, indoor).
Key Factors
- Martinez 2.65 Bayesian ERA (C+ grade, D stuff 0.103, elite command 0.792) — ERA good but stuff weak; likely benefiting from command/sequencing
- Fedde 4.59 ERA (C+ grade, C- stuff 0.173) — standard back-end starter quality
- Tropicana Field indoor (roof closed) = perfect weather neutral; no wind, temp controlled, 1.0 multiplier; model 6.42 is adjusted baseline
- NRFI 63.7% prob (13.3% edge) — strong first-inning suppression signal; market missing low-scoring context
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 21.3% edge (model 62.9% prob) — second-strongest F5 edge on slate after STL
Risk Factors
- 20.6% edge on total is EXTREME — triggers HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; historical 15%+ edge totals show a supportive track record in tracking data
- TB bullpen 3.83 ERA (1.175 quality) vs CWS 3.88 ERA (1.16 quality) — bullpens nearly identical; no relief-arm advantage
- CWS cleanup hitters (Murakami 30% HR prob, Vargas 26.5% HR prob) could spike total if both go deep
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 54.6%
-4.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.0 pts
Total
8.5
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.