SF vs SD prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.1 - SF 2.6. SD is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.7 total runs.
SD
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
2.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSF
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.9% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.1 — SF 2.6
Actual
SD 7 — SF 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Mahle R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%93 mph16% whiff
FS25%86 mph26% whiff
FC17%88 mph11% whiff
Walker Buehler R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%90 mph19% whiff
FF20%94 mph11% whiff
SI17%94 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
75°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.36ERA
4.37FIP
8.32K/9
4.57BB/9
1.43WHIP
SD
3.16ERA
3.76FIP
9.51K/9
3.68BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.4 runs
34.3% win
SD F5
1.7 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
68.1%
YRFI
31.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Casey Schmitt LF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
San Diego ace Bradgley Rodriguez (2.52 ERA, B grade, elite command 0.657) vs SF's Carson Whisenhunt (4.97 ERA, C+ grade, weak command 0.291). Model projects 5.63 total (second-lowest on slate); market 8.5. UNDER 8.5 at 19.2% edge (model 61.2% vs market 38.8%) is ELITE — PETCO park (-12% baseline suppression, 0.9 multiplier), cool 75.1F, plus Rodriguez dominance = run suppression.
Key Factors
- ELITE PITCHER MISMATCH: Rodriguez 2.52 ERA (B grade 0.582, B- stuff 0.52, elite command 0.657) vs Whisenhunt 4.97 ERA (C+ grade 0.353, C+ stuff 0.403) — 2.45 ERA gap is elite
- Rodriguez elite command (0.657) + moderate K-rate (24.8%) vs Whisenhunt weak command (0.291) + below-avg K-rate (19.4%) — Rodriguez dominates control battle
- PETCO park -0.9 multiplier (12% run suppression baseline) is league-toughest on scoring; model already bakes in suppression
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 37.4% edge (model 66.1% prob) — STRONGEST F5 EDGE ON SLATE (tied with DET @ OAK)
- NRFI 67.4% prob (19.9% edge) — tied for strongest first-inning suppression; Rodriguez will dominate early
Risk Factors
- 22.4% edge is extreme (tied for highest on slate) — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; overconfidence penalty -25% unit reduction
- SF lineup has Bryce Eldridge (30% HR prob) and Whisenhunt could get rocked early (4.97 ERA); one bad inning = 1-2 run swing
- SD bullpen (3.16 ERA, 1.424 quality, excellent) is elite; if relief called early, game may not explode as much as 8.5 market suggests
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.