CHC vs STL — July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is 1.5 with a total of 8.5. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
STL
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Javier Assad R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI41%93 mph7% whiff
FF18%93 mph13% whiff
FC14%88 mph14% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%95 mph12% whiff
SL30%88 mph30% whiff
SI18%95 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
88°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.42ERA
4.75FIP
8.46K/9
3.68BB/9
1.38WHIP
STL
4.22ERA
4.22FIP
8.19K/9
4.10BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
1.8 runs
43.6% win
STL F5
1.4 runs
33.5% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Riley O'Brien RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.