NYY vs CWS prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 3.3 - NYY 3.8. NYY is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
CWS
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
CWS
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%96 mph16% whiff
CH24%86 mph36% whiff
ST20%81 mph40% whiff
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph22% whiff
KC21%80 mph25% whiff
SL18%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
78°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.10ERA
3.72FIP
8.56K/9
3.36BB/9
1.19WHIP
CWS
3.94ERA
4.14FIP
9.21K/9
4.52BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.0 runs
41.7% win
CWS F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.