BOS vs PIT prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.0 - BOS 4.0. PIT is favored with a 52.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
PIT
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITBOS
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (3,293 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 4.0 — BOS 4.0
Actual
PIT 0 — BOS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI21%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph37% whiff
FC19%88 mph14% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%98 mph19% whiff
SL36%90 mph36% whiff
CH12%93 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
79°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.38ERA
3.52FIP
9.59K/9
3.10BB/9
1.24WHIP
PIT
3.46ERA
3.66FIP
9.88K/9
4.17BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.1 runs
39.0% win
PIT F5
2.2 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Nick Gonzales 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Yohan Ramirez RPPATERNITY
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.