CHC vs MIL prediction for September 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.8 - CHC 5.3. CHC is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
MIL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCHC
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 4.8 — CHC 5.3
Actual
MIL 4 — CHC 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph13% whiff
CH26%79 mph25% whiff
SL15%83 mph36% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%80 mph28% whiff
SI23%92 mph10% whiff
FF23%93 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
78°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.987
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.35ERA
4.76FIP
9.26K/9
4.08BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIL
2.98ERA
3.36FIP
9.62K/9
3.62BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.0 runs
47.7% win
MIL F5
2.7 runs
39.1% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
48.2%
YRFI
51.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Ian Happ LFDAY-TO-DAY
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL7 injured
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.