LAA vs BOS prediction for September 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.6 - LAA 4.4. BOS is favored with a 66.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
BOS
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSLAA
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.6% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
BOS
468
Projected
BOS 5.6 — LAA 4.4
Actual
BOS 5 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%96 mph12% whiff
CH25%83 mph33% whiff
CU10%81 mph22% whiff
Brayan Bello R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI40%95 mph12% whiff
CH20%89 mph22% whiff
FC16%88 mph45% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
76°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.007
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.14ERA
4.17FIP
9.59K/9
3.89BB/9
1.35WHIP
BOS
3.06ERA
3.28FIP
9.73K/9
2.97BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.5 runs
32.3% win
BOS F5
3.5 runs
54.8% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
45.8%
YRFI
54.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Ceddanne Rafaela CF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.