FINAL: SF 5 — STL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SF 3.8 - STL 4.1 (STL at 51.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SF
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFSTL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STL L5SF L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.2% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.8 — STL 4.1
Actual
SF 5 — STL 4
Pick Results
STL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph27% whiff
SI16%91 mph10% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%92 mph10% whiff
CH24%86 mph26% whiff
ST20%84 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
73°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.083 Total: 1.047
13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.48ERA
4.25FIP
8.19K/9
4.05BB/9
1.34WHIP
SF
4.83ERA
4.59FIP
7.28K/9
4.38BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+9.4% EV
+119
NRFI YRFI
-9.4% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-9.1% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-8.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.1% EV
+165
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+4.0% EV
+103
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.1 runs
39.6% win
SF F5
2.1 runs
42.9% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
12%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.178 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL20.8%
ISO: 0.199 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
SF8 injured
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
McGreevy's 4.29 ERA beats Webb's 4.55 ERA, and Oracle Park's rare 13 mph outfield wind (+1.047 total multiplier) creates a real weather tail favoring offense — model's 9.4% STL edge is legitimate, but the historically RED away-ML historical support caps this to a LEAN rather than a BET.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge: McGreevy 4.29 ERA vs Webb 4.55 ERA = modest 0.26 ERA advantage to STL, both below-average arms
- Weather tail: Oracle Park 13 mph outfield wind creates +1.047 total run multiplier — rare and likely underpriced by market
- Model edge: 9.4% (49.9% model vs 45.7% market implied) is meaningful without being in the danger >15% historical support
- historically weak risk: Away ML historical support shows only 43.1% historical WR — real historical drag on confidence
Risk Factors
- historically weak execution risk: Away underdog ML bets have lost money historically at 43.1% clip
- Model-market conflict: Market may be weighting recent SF form or bullpen strength not captured in this pitcher-centric analysis
- Weather dependency: If actual wind comes in lighter than forecast, the offensive tailwind edge evaporates
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 51.7%
-8.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.1 pts
Total
7.5
+4.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.