WSH vs SD prediction for September 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.4 - WSH 3.9. SD is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
SD
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
WSH
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDWSH
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.9% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.4 — WSH 3.9
Actual
SD 3 — WSH 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Irvin R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%93 mph19% whiff
CU23%78 mph34% whiff
SI19%92 mph9% whiff
Nick Pivetta R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%94 mph19% whiff
CU18%80 mph25% whiff
ST14%82 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
92°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.000 Total: 0.997
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.89ERA
5.36FIP
8.97K/9
4.97BB/9
1.58WHIP
SD
3.12ERA
3.63FIP
9.79K/9
3.86BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.2 runs
37.0% win
SD F5
2.6 runs
47.8% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.6%
YRFI
45.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.