FINAL: MIA 4 — NYM 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 4.2 - NYM 3.6 (MIA at 60.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIANYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM W5MIA L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.9% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.2 — NYM 3.6
Actual
MIA 4 — NYM 9
Pick Results
MIA MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jonah Tong R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%96 mph18% whiff
CH28%86 mph28% whiff
FC20%91 mph23% whiff
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%98 mph21% whiff
SI17%98 mph15% whiff
SL16%88 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
87°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.26ERA
4.26FIP
9.37K/9
4.05BB/9
1.35WHIP
MIA
4.27ERA
3.93FIP
9.73K/9
4.31BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
-10.5% EV
+119
NRFI YRFI
-9.5% EV
-111
F5_ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
+114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.3% EV
-172
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+5.4% EV
+155
ML HOME
+5.2% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.9 runs
34.9% win
MIA F5
2.5 runs
48.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Griffin Conine MIA29.9%
ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 13.4% | vs Jonah Tong | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Alvarez NYM29.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jonah Tong
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM5 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game resolved: NYM 9, MIA 4 (away won). Model favored home (MIA) at 59.1% with +5.2% edge — model FAILED on direction; this is a cautionary data point on model overconfidence with modest edges.
Key Factors
- Pérez 4.02 ERA (B-) vs Tong 3.89 ERA (C+) — nearly even pitching matchup, edge was marginal not decisive
- Model 59.1% home vs market implied 56.2% = +5.2% edge, but result went against the pick
- Weather: 86.6F warm, thin air (density altitude 1775) contributed to 13 combined runs actual vs 7.82 model projection
- Final 9-4 confirms NYM offensive out-performance exceeded any marginal pitching edge
Risk Factors
- Game already resolved — retrospective analysis only
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 60.4%
+5.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.4 pts
Total
8.0
+3.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.