FINAL: DET 5 — MIN 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 3.9 - MIN 3.5 (DET at 58.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
DET
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETMIN
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
245
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.9 — MIN 3.5
Actual
DET 5 — MIN 4
Pick Results
DET MLmlWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joe Ryan R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%93 mph21% whiff
ST14%80 mph35% whiff
FS12%88 mph22% whiff
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph17% whiff
FC22%92 mph19% whiff
SL18%87 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
78°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.43ERA
4.11FIP
9.15K/9
4.07BB/9
1.39WHIP
DET
4.30ERA
4.63FIP
8.48K/9
4.27BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-12.9% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-12.2% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+11.0% EV
+101
ML AWAY
-10.3% EV
+107
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-6.8% EV
-196
ML HOME
+5.4% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.8 runs
34.5% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
46.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Riley Greene DET28.8%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN28.0%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Troy Melton | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET27.4%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Troy Melton
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Game resolved: DET 5, MIN 4 (home won as favored). Model's ML direction was correct (58.0% vs market 53.8%), confirming the Melton/Ryan pitching edge; the +11.0% UNDER 7.5 edge failed since final total was 9 runs.
Key Factors
- Melton 2.38 ERA (B-) vs Ryan 3.94 ERA (B) — Melton's superior ERA supported DET home favorite
- Model 56.7% vs market implied 53.8% = +5.4% edge, correctly predicted DET win
- UNDER 7.5 total edge was +11.0% (model 7.39 runs) but actual total was 9 runs — total edge failed
- Comerica Park slight hitter-friendly conditions (1.024 HR mult) may have been underweighted in the UNDER projection
Risk Factors
- Game already resolved — retrospective analysis only
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 58.0%
+5.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.3 pts
Total
7.5
+11.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.