CLE vs BAL prediction for September 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.6 - CLE 3.7. CLE is favored with a 50.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
BAL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALCLE
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.6% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.6 — CLE 3.7
Actual
BAL 6 — CLE 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%92 mph15% whiff
CU30%80 mph35% whiff
CH25%81 mph38% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph20% whiff
CH21%87 mph22% whiff
ST14%78 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
82°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.38ERA
3.68FIP
10.10K/9
3.73BB/9
1.22WHIP
BAL
4.09ERA
3.74FIP
8.90K/9
3.61BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.9 runs
39.0% win
BAL F5
2.1 runs
42.7% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.7%
YRFI
40.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.