CHC vs MIL prediction for September 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.3 - CHC 4.2. MIL is favored with a 64.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
MIL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CHC
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCHC
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.5% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.3 — CHC 4.2
Actual
MIL 4 — CHC 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Peterson L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph14% whiff
FF24%92 mph17% whiff
SL22%86 mph27% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph37% whiff
FC14%96 mph20% whiff
SL12%92 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
78°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.36ERA
4.77FIP
9.30K/9
4.12BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIL
3.01ERA
3.39FIP
9.55K/9
3.62BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
29.3% win
MIL F5
3.2 runs
55.8% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.