FINAL: BOS 1 — LAA 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 4.5 - LAA 5.0 (LAA at 54.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
BOS
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSLAA
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAABOS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
BOS
346
Projected
BOS 4.5 — LAA 5.0
Actual
BOS 1 — LAA 6
Pick Results
LAA MLmlWIN+0.65u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph17% whiff
SL33%86 mph33% whiff
CU11%72 mph37% whiff
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH24%84 mph39% whiff
SL24%87 mph25% whiff
FF21%94 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
74°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.992
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.09ERA
4.15FIP
9.56K/9
3.87BB/9
1.35WHIP
BOS
3.07ERA
3.28FIP
9.82K/9
2.96BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-17.8% EV
-128
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+16.7% EV
-104
ML AWAY
+16.5% EV
+126
ML HOME
-15.7% EV
-135
NRFI NRFI
-12.8% EV
-159
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.6% EV
+155
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
3.1 runs
50.0% win
BOS F5
2.5 runs
36.5% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.2%
YRFI
48.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Jose Siri LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Patrick Sandoval | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA29.1%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Patrick Sandoval | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyren Paris LAA28.0%
ISO: 0.067 | Barrel: 6.7% | vs Patrick Sandoval | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Patrick Sandoval
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Ceddanne Rafaela CF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
OVER 7.5 is the top play of the day: 16.7% total edge grounded in a real pitcher mismatch (Detmers 3.72 ERA vs Sandoval 4.76 ERA) plus Fenway's hitter-friendly environment.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup favors LAA: Detmers 3.72 ERA, B-grade, 27.8% K-rate, strong command 0.676 vs Sandoval 4.76 ERA, C+ grade
- Park factor: Fenway historically inflates scoring; temp 74.4F ideal for hard contact
- Model total 9.48 vs market 7.5 = 1.98 run edge, exceptional gap
- Calibration caveat: high edges (>15%) generally underperform, but pitcher logic here is airtight
Risk Factors
- 16.7% edge triggers high-edge calibration warning (historically a supportive track record for extreme edges)
- Detmers' strikeout ability could suppress runs below projection if he dominates
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 54.2%
-11.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.6 pts
Total
7.5
+16.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.