FINAL: PHI 5 — HOU 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.8 - HOU 5.0 (HOU at 51.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
PHI
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIHOU
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOU W5PHI L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.9% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.8 — HOU 5.0
Actual
PHI 5 — HOU 6
Pick Results
HOU MLmlWIN+0.64u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hayden Wesneski R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST30%81 mph42% whiff
FF24%94 mph11% whiff
SI18%93 mph12% whiff
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph11% whiff
SL18%88 mph36% whiff
ST16%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
83°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.41ERA
3.93FIP
9.25K/9
3.57BB/9
1.19WHIP
PHI
4.34ERA
3.91FIP
10.27K/9
3.55BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-11.2% EV
+103
F5 UNDER 4.5
-11.0% EV
-108
ML AWAY
+10.9% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.7% EV
+150
NRFI NRFI
-6.6% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
+5.9% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.9 runs
46.2% win
PHI F5
2.6 runs
39.5% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
46.6%
YRFI
53.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 16.5% | vs Hayden Wesneski | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI29.8%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Hayden Wesneski | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hayden Wesneski
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
PHI6 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
HOU dog +124 offers 10.9% ML edge driven by a clean pitcher mismatch: Wesneski (3.43 ERA, B- overall, strong command 0.411) vs Painter (5.99 ERA, C+ grade) — 2.56 ERA gap favors the road side.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors HOU: Wesneski 3.43 ERA vs Painter 5.99 ERA, 2.56 ERA gap
- HOU bullpen elite: 3.41 ERA with 0.80 ERA closer vs PHI 4.34 ERA bullpen
- Park neutral: Citizens Bank Park total mult 1.017
- Secondary total edge: model 9.82 vs market 8.5 = +1.32 runs, OVER worth monitoring
Risk Factors
- 10.9% edge nearing calibration caution historical support
- Away side structural historically weak risk; sample n=13 in exact bucket is small
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 51.4%
-8.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.7 pts
Total
8.5
+4.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.