FINAL: MIA 5 — NYM 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 4.5 - NYM 3.7 (MIA at 62.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
MIA
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIANYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMMIA L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.6% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
MIA
346
Projected
MIA 4.5 — NYM 3.7
Actual
MIA 5 — NYM 7
Pick Results
MIA MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%91 mph20% whiff
ST30%76 mph30% whiff
SI20%90 mph6% whiff
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI27%97 mph9% whiff
CH20%91 mph26% whiff
FF18%97 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
82°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.22ERA
4.19FIP
9.52K/9
3.93BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIA
4.26ERA
3.92FIP
9.72K/9
4.32BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-15.6% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+14.3% EV
+172
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-11.9% EV
-192
ML HOME
+11.2% EV
-118
NRFI YRFI
-11.1% EV
-115
F5 OVER 4.5
-6.8% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.9 runs
31.7% win
MIA F5
2.8 runs
53.1% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.6%
YRFI
46.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Heriberto Hernández MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.137 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM28.9%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Brian Navarreto MIA27.8%
ISO: 0.080 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Manaea
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM5 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Xavier Edwards 2B10-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
MIA home favorite offers 11.2% ML edge in the profitable home-favorite historical support; Alcantara (3.82 ERA, elite 0.724 command) holds a 1.26 ERA advantage over Manaea (5.08 ERA).
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage to home: Alcantara 3.82 ERA vs Manaea 5.08 ERA, 1.26 ERA gap
- Home field solid: loanDepot retractable roof, neutral weather (82.3F)
- Bullpen essentially neutral: MIA 4.26 ERA vs NYM 4.22 ERA
- historical support profile: home ML favorite 10-15% edge shows a supportive track record, consistent with model's 60.1%
- Favorites overall strong: a supportive track record across 30 days
Risk Factors
- Sample size in exact historical support modest
- NYM competitive roster; market may already reflect most of the edge
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 62.5%
+14.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+14.3 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.