FINAL: DET 2 — MIN 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 4.0 - MIN 4.2 (MIN at 50.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
DET
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETMIN
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN L4DET W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.0% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.0 — MIN 4.2
Actual
DET 2 — MIN 3
Pick Results
MIN MLmlWIN+0.61u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dean Kremer R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%93 mph13% whiff
FS26%83 mph37% whiff
FC18%87 mph31% whiff
Drew Anderson R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph18% whiff
CH30%90 mph35% whiff
CU23%80 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
83°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.994
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.43ERA
4.11FIP
9.15K/9
4.07BB/9
1.39WHIP
DET
4.26ERA
4.65FIP
8.44K/9
4.34BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-10.4% EV
-149
F5 OVER 4.5
-8.3% EV
-108
ML HOME
-8.1% EV
-123
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.1% EV
+164
ML AWAY
+5.9% EV
+115
F5 UNDER 4.5
-4.0% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.3 runs
40.5% win
DET F5
2.4 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.7%
YRFI
45.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Kody Clemens MIN29.5%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Drew Anderson | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Riley Greene DET25.3%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kevin McGonigle DET24.5%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dean Kremer
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Drew Anderson
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
MIN presents modest ML value as away dog; 5.9% edge sits in the historically best 5-10% edge historical support, but away historically weak drag warrants conservative sizing.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch AGAINST MIN: Kremer 6.27 ERA vs Anderson 4.03 ERA, 2.24 ERA disadvantage — model's lean is driven by market mispricing, not pitcher quality
- 5-10% edge historical support is the best historical performance cluster: a supportive track record, +2.45u across 37 bets
- Bullpen: MIN 4.43 ERA vs DET 4.26 ERA — roughly neutral
- Home total drag: DET wind 8.2mph in, total mult 0.994
Risk Factors
- Away historically weak: general road dog underperformance (a supportive track record, 196 bets) works against this pick despite historical support-specific edge
- 7-day cyclical only a supportive track record — recent weakness
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 50.4%
-7.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.1 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.