FINAL: KC 3 — ARI 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 5.4 - ARI 5.2 (KC at 53.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
KC
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ARI
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCARI
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARIKC W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
KC
357
Projected
KC 5.4 — ARI 5.2
Actual
KC 3 — ARI 5
Pick Results
KC MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Corbin Burnes R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC51%94 mph19% whiff
CU18%80 mph44% whiff
SI9%96 mph7% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%93 mph17% whiff
CH25%81 mph26% whiff
FC15%89 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
101°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.116 Total: 1.061
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.30ERA
3.48FIP
8.13K/9
2.98BB/9
1.14WHIP
KC
4.87ERA
4.92FIP
7.88K/9
4.68BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-23.7% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-11.8% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.5% EV
+149
ML AWAY
-7.8% EV
-104
ML HOME
+3.8% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+3.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.8 runs
39.0% win
KC F5
3.2 runs
48.4% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
45.6%
YRFI
54.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.28
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
Carter Jensen KC27.1%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Corbin Burnes | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC25.9%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Corbin Burnes | Park: 0.96x
Matthew Lugo KC21.4%
ISO: 0.079 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Corbin Burnes | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Corbin Burnes
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI7 injured
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
KC8 injured
Jac Caglianone RFDAY-TO-DAY
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
Data integrity failure: Corbin Burnes (ARI's simulated SP) is on 60-day IL with an elbow injury and cannot pitch, invalidating the model's 19.6% edge calculation entirely.
Key Factors
- CRITICAL: Corbin Burnes on 60-DAY-IL (elbow) per official injury report — cannot start today
- Simulation still lists Burnes as ARI's starter, meaning all model outputs for this game are built on stale data
- Real ARI starter is unknown; likely a weaker replacement, materially changing the true matchup
- 101F heat suggests high scoring regardless of starters, but SP quality drives the game far more than temperature
Risk Factors
- Model output is fundamentally unreliable for this game
- Any edge derived here (19.6% ML, total 1.89) should be disregarded until real starter confirmed
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 53.9%
+1.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+1.2 pts
Total
9.0
+3.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.