FINAL: BAL 5 — CLE 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 3.9 - CLE 3.9 (BAL at 53.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
BAL
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALCLE
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.9 — CLE 3.9
Actual
BAL 5 — CLE 9
Pick Results
CLE MLmlWIN+0.57u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%86 mph29% whiff
FF24%94 mph13% whiff
SI21%93 mph14% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph17% whiff
FS19%84 mph27% whiff
SL16%84 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
86°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.36ERA
3.67FIP
10.14K/9
3.75BB/9
1.23WHIP
BAL
4.13ERA
3.77FIP
8.89K/9
3.60BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-13.9% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-5.7% EV
+104
F5_ML HOME
-4.8% EV
-130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+3.9% EV
-114
ML AWAY
-3.7% EV
+105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-3.2% EV
-200
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.0 runs
38.3% win
BAL F5
2.2 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 1.03x
Samuel Basallo BAL27.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Coby Mayo BAL26.4%
ISO: 0.119 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Market is correctly pricing this near-coin-flip; minor pitcher edge to BAL (Young 3.69 ERA vs Bibee 4.38 ERA) is insufficient to overcome away historically weak drag and market efficiency.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge minimal: Young 3.69 ERA vs Bibee 4.38 ERA, 0.69 gap
- Bullpen neutral: BAL 4.13 ERA vs CLE 3.36 ERA
- Weather minimal: 85.7F, 3mph wind neutral
Risk Factors
- Away historically weak: CLE ML underdog in a supportive track record cluster
- Model shows near-zero edge (0.3pp) — coin-flip risk
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 53.3%
-1.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.3 pts
Total
8.0
+2.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.