CHC vs NYM prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 5.0 - CHC 6.1. CHC is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
NYM
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCHC
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
NYM
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF43%92 mph18% whiff
FS33%83 mph41% whiff
ST14%82 mph37% whiff
Kodai Senga R
NYM
FF37%96 mph17% whiff
FC24%90 mph29% whiff
FO22%83 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
72°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.039
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.5% EV
-156
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-32.5% EV
-122
F5 OVER 4.5
+19.5% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-16.4% EV
+104
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+11.5% EV
+100
NRFI YRFI
+6.3% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.9 runs
53.9% win
NYM F5
3.0 runs
34.8% win
F5 Total
6.9
NRFI
40.5%
YRFI
59.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.45
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
5%
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Kodai Senga
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Riley Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Lambert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ronny Mauricio SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
Model projects 11.11 total runs vs market 9.0 — OVER 9.0 at 11.5% edge (55.8% model prob). Kodai Senga's catastrophic 9.72 ERA is the story; despite being NYM pitcher, his ineptitude inflates scoring. F5 OVER 4.5 edge 19.5% (65.3% prob) confirms early offensive environment. Both lineups healthy (CHC Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki all 30% HR prob).
Key Factors
- Senga's 9.72 ERA is catastrophic — worst on today's slate by far; market likely not fully adjusting for liability
- Model total 11.11 vs market 9.0 = 2.11-run OVER edge at 11.5% (55.8% prob > 50%)
- F5 OVER 4.5 edge strong: 19.5% at 65.3% prob — offensive dominance in early innings
- CHC lineup talent (Happ, Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki all top-tier) vs weakened Senga
- Citi Field open, 71.8F, 9.4 mph out = slight OVER environment (1.039 total_mult, 1.07 HR_mult)
Risk Factors
- Zone profile YELLOW; totals are unreliable (recent UNDER auto-disable). Expect variance.
- Imanaga (4.6 ERA) not great but functional; Senga meltdown may be priced in partially
- 11.5% edge large; could indicate model overconfidence on pitcher performance prediction
TOTALS VALUEYELLOW ZONEPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 54.1%
-39.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.5 pts
Total
9.0
+11.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →