FINAL: LAD 6 — CIN 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 5.0 - CIN 4.8 (LAD at 54.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
LAD
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADCIN
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CINLAD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (3,768 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.0 — CIN 4.8
Actual
LAD 6 — CIN 3
Pick Results
CIN MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF56%98 mph14% whiff
SL38%90 mph49% whiff
CH5%90 mph31% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%94 mph26% whiff
SL30%87 mph38% whiff
CH16%86 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
84°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.26ERA
4.65FIP
9.15K/9
4.86BB/9
1.39WHIP
LAD
3.94ERA
3.85FIP
10.07K/9
4.14BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+12.3% EV
+158
NRFI NRFI
-11.1% EV
-120
ML HOME
-10.8% EV
-172
F5_ML HOME
-10.7% EV
-145
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+10.3% EV
-101
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.5% EV
+125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.7 runs
42.2% win
LAD F5
2.8 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
47.2%
YRFI
52.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.20
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
3%
Elly De La Cruz CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.179 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN27.2%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN4 injured
Michael Toglia 1B60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
LAD8 injured
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Chase Burns (3.01 ERA, 29.1% K-rate, A- stuff) vs Emmet Sheehan (5.71 ERA, 26.2% K-rate, B stuff) is an elite-vs-mediocre starter mismatch worth a real 10-15% win-probability swing — model's 12.3% CIN edge is well-founded, but the historically RED away-ML historical support requires a LEAN rather than a BET, and the accompanying OVER total edge should be avoided entirely.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Burns 3.01 ERA (A- stuff, 29.1% K-rate) vs Sheehan 5.71 ERA (B stuff, 26.2% K-rate) = 2.7 ERA gap favoring CIN
- Model edge: 12.3% to CIN (43.5% model vs 38.8% market implied) — meaningful, approaching but not crossing the >15% overconfidence threshold
- Market overpricing LAD: -172 odds (63.3% implied) seem to lean heavily on home field/recent form over the clear starter mismatch
- historically weak friction: Away ML historical support historically shows only a supportive track record, tempering confidence despite the clean pitcher read
Risk Factors
- historically weak risk: Betting away ML has been a historical money-loser at a supportive track record across the tracked sample
- Edge proximity to danger historical support: 12.3% edge is approaching the >15% threshold where model overconfidence has historically shown a supportive track record
- OVER total trap: Model's +10.3% OVER 8.5 edge falls into the historically worst-performing total historical support — do not bet this leg
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 54.5%
-9.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.5 pts
Total
8.5
+10.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.