CIN vs SF prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.2 - CIN 3.8. CIN is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
SF
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CIN
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCIN
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
SF
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%94 mph8% whiff
FF26%94 mph16% whiff
CU24%82 mph40% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%93 mph8% whiff
CU26%77 mph33% whiff
CH21%87 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
75°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.029
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.11ERA
4.68FIP
8.99K/9
4.92BB/9
1.38WHIP
SF
4.55ERA
4.50FIP
7.28K/9
4.47BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
1.7 runs
39.8% win
SF F5
1.6 runs
37.0% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
66.7%
YRFI
33.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN6 injured
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B10-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
SF8 injured
Adrian Houser SPDAY-TO-DAY
Carson Whisenhunt SP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.