PHI vs SEA prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.7 - PHI 3.7. SEA is favored with a 52.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
SEA
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PHI
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
SEA
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%86 mph46% whiff
FF25%97 mph13% whiff
SI18%96 mph11% whiff
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph22% whiff
SI19%96 mph9% whiff
SL15%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
72°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.029
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.38ERA
3.87FIP
10.32K/9
3.62BB/9
1.36WHIP
SEA
3.83ERA
4.04FIP
9.02K/9
3.42BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.9 runs
40.8% win
SEA F5
1.9 runs
39.6% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
62.6%
YRFI
37.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.