CLE vs LAA prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.0 - CLE 3.2. LAA is favored with a 50.2% win probability. LAA wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
LAA
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CLE
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAACLE
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.5% (3,572 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
135
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 3.0 — CLE 3.2
Actual
LAA 3 — CLE 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%92 mph15% whiff
CU30%80 mph36% whiff
CH26%81 mph39% whiff
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%96 mph12% whiff
CH24%83 mph33% whiff
SL11%85 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
91°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.084 Total: 1.045
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.45ERA
3.79FIP
10.05K/9
3.84BB/9
1.24WHIP
LAA
3.91ERA
4.20FIP
9.50K/9
3.77BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.8 runs
42.8% win
LAA F5
1.6 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
62.6%
YRFI
37.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
LAA8 injured
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Wade Meckler LF7-DAY IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.