PIT vs SD prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.5 - PIT 4.0. PIT is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
SD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDPIT
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,572 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
SD
245
Projected
SD 3.5 — PIT 4.0
Actual
SD 3 — PIT 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%98 mph19% whiff
SL21%91 mph26% whiff
CH15%92 mph24% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%95 mph16% whiff
FC24%91 mph19% whiff
SI15%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
77°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.025
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.50ERA
3.60FIP
9.88K/9
4.22BB/9
1.25WHIP
SD
3.07ERA
3.63FIP
9.65K/9
3.73BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.3 runs
47.3% win
SD F5
1.9 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.7%
YRFI
41.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.