BOS vs MIA prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.3 - BOS 3.5. BOS is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
MIA
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIABOS
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
245
MIA
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI22%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph38% whiff
FC19%88 mph14% whiff
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%94 mph19% whiff
CH15%87 mph22% whiff
ST13%82 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
85°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.15ERA
3.42FIP
9.55K/9
3.08BB/9
1.20WHIP
MIA
4.19ERA
3.97FIP
9.44K/9
4.11BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.8 runs
41.3% win
MIA F5
1.6 runs
37.6% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
66.4%
YRFI
33.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.