HOU vs NYY prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.0 - HOU 4.4. NYY is favored with a 57.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYY
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYHOU
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.0% (3,572 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.0 — HOU 4.4
Actual
NYY 9 — HOU 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%94 mph22% whiff
CH23%87 mph33% whiff
SL12%86 mph25% whiff
Elmer Rodríguez R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI42%95 mph14% whiff
FF23%95 mph22% whiff
ST16%80 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.51ERA
3.98FIP
9.20K/9
3.53BB/9
1.19WHIP
NYY
3.11ERA
4.01FIP
8.50K/9
3.56BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.6 runs
39.1% win
NYY F5
3.0 runs
47.1% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
48.2%
YRFI
51.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
NYY7 injured
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH60-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.