TB vs DET prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.4 - TB 4.8. DET is favored with a 51.8% win probability. DET wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
DET
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTB
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
DET
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%94 mph19% whiff
CH22%87 mph25% whiff
CU13%79 mph33% whiff
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%96 mph18% whiff
FC22%92 mph19% whiff
SL17%87 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
81°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.998
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.57ERA
3.88FIP
8.86K/9
2.64BB/9
1.14WHIP
DET
4.19ERA
4.63FIP
8.49K/9
4.26BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.4 runs
39.5% win
DET F5
2.6 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.