FINAL: DET 0 — TB 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 4.3 - TB 4.8 (DET at 50.3% win probability). DET wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
DET
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTB
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TBDET L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.5% (3,572 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.3 — TB 4.8
Actual
DET 0 — TB 3
Pick Results
TB @ DET NRFInrfiWIN+0.41u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%94 mph19% whiff
CH22%87 mph25% whiff
CU13%79 mph33% whiff
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%96 mph18% whiff
FC22%92 mph19% whiff
SL17%87 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
81°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.57ERA
3.88FIP
8.86K/9
2.64BB/9
1.14WHIP
DET
4.19ERA
4.63FIP
8.49K/9
4.26BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-11.4% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
-6.6% EV
-128
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-6.5% EV
-208
F5_ML AWAY
-4.0% EV
+102
ML HOME
-3.4% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+2.5% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.4 runs
40.2% win
DET F5
2.5 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Troy Melton | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET24.0%
ISO: 0.269 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.97x
Kevin McGonigle DET22.3%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Troy Melton
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
Game is already FINAL (TB 3, DET 0) — pregame analysis moot; Freddy Peralta's 6 scoreless innings validated the model's read on his true talent level exceeding his 5.76 season ERA.
Key Factors
- Game status: FINAL, TB 3 - DET 0
- Peralta threw 6 scoreless IP, exceeding his 5.76 season ERA baseline
- No further action possible on this game
Risk Factors
- N/A - game complete
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 50.3%
-6.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-6.5 pts
Total
7.5
+2.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.